Wednesday, April 18, 2007

Scenario Thinking

I read in a book recently that Scenario
is a process for developing stories
of the future and using them, once developed, to
inform strategy. After the process itself is internalized,
scenario thinking becomes, for many practitioners,
a posture—a routine way of managing change and a
way of exploring the future so that you might greet it
better prepared.

To me, scenario thinking is just creating every possible
event that can occur, finding alternative counter
measures for each and then including these possibilities in
strategy formulation. This way you can be sure you are
prepared for any eventuality and that means a good 
night sleep.

Creating scenarios is best done with a team. Every 
consequence of each is weighed and it is evaluated
in the light of resources and objectives to be achieved.
After trashing out these, the overall game plan can be

What Are Scenarios?
 Scenarios are stories
 Scenarios are maps of the future
 Scenarios are mental maps
 Scenarios are mental models
 Scenarios are narratives
 Scenarios are pictures
 Scenarios are models
 Scenarios are sets of indicators
 Scenarios are tools
 Scenarios are art

Scenarios according to the experts

Scenarios are the powerful vehicles for challenging
our mental models about the world. - Peter Schwartz

Scenarios are a tool for helping us to take a long view
in a world of great uncertainty. - Peter Schwartz

Scenarios are stories about the way the world might
turn out tomorrow, stories that can help us recognize
and adapt to changing aspects of our present
environment. - Peter Schwartz.

Scenarios are attempts to describe in some detail a
hypotethical sequence of events that could lead
plausibly to the situation envisaged. - Herman Kahn

Scenario is a tool for ordering one´s perceptions about
alternative future environments in which one´s
decisions might be playede out. - Peter Schwartz

Scenario is a set of organized ways for us to dream
effectively about our future. - Peter Schwartz

Scenario Planning
Scenario planning is about making choices today with
an understanding of how they might turn out.
- Peter Schwartz

Scenarios liberated planning from the traditional predict
and control approach. They are not accurate forecasts,
they are, as Kahn said, thinking tools. - Kees van der Heijden

Steps to Developing Scenarios

The Peter Schwartz Method
 Step One: Identify Focal Issue or Decision
 Step Two: Key Forces in the Local Environment
 Step Three: Driving Forces
 Step Four: Rank by Importance and Uncertainty
 Step Five: Selecting Scenario Logic
 Step Six: Fleshing Out the Scenarios
 Step Seven: Implication
 Step Eight: Selection of Leading Indicators and
I for more info on scenario thinking, i suggest you
read Peter Schwartz's  The Art of Long View

Quote of the Post
"The best way to predict the future is tio invent it"
- unknown


Refinedone said...

Just like to say I'am liking your site site very much...alot to take in and will have to come back and leave a proper comment.

till then...keep thinking and please dont forget to "do" too.

"ignorance an abuse of the mind" I like that very much... will be using that :)

Idemili said...

You blog...she is different, yes? I like.